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3D Printers can fabricate human organs (good) and guns (bad). Abundance goes both ways...
An abundant future is a theme we hear a lot about these days. However, it’s usually described under the context of eliminating poverty, providing resources, and generally just making the world a better place. Indeed, there is much validity to these sentiments. Our technology gives us the power to make tomorrow better than today; but with this power comes great responsibility. If abundance truly is impending, we must be prepared for the negative externalities that will arise with the new world order. More than just worrying about spam mail in your inbox or spending too much time on Facebook, there are serious threats on the horizon that we collectively fail to properly acknowledge. It’s important to remember that technology is a double-edged sword. This has always been the case – the same fire that cooked our food also burned down the village. And as technology continues to become more powerful and ubiquitous in our lives, it is essential we understand all of the potential ramifications.
Goodman says DNA was "the original operating system", and can be hacked just as easily
The Policy, Law and Ethics Track Chair at Singularity University, Marc Goodman recently spoke at TED Global about his unique perspective on our future and why it keeps him up at night. He opened his talk matter-of-factly: “I study the future of crime and terrorism. And quite frankly I’m afraid.” Although Goodman is currently immersed in a world of techno-optimists at SU, his career started off as a law enforcer on the local, national, and international level. He’s had a front row seat watching the world’s criminals adopt the latest technology to benefit their personal agenda. It started with pagers and mobile phones, but lately he sees criminals utilizing the transparency and reach of the web, and anything else they can get their hands.
From his perspective, Goodman perceives abundance not just in the way Peter Diamandis describes it, but also an abundance of ways criminals can severely damage the well being of society. He explains, “There is no operating system that can’t be hacked,” and as everything moves into the digital realm, we are serving the criminals a free lunch. With a few lines of code the world is at a hacker’s fingertips. Stolen passwords and government-led operations like Stuxnet are just the tip of the iceberg. Goodman points to the emergence of new technologies like 3D Printers and synthetic biology as just another way for criminals to do harm.
Adding to the predicament is our lack of defense for this sort of technological-based crime. Governments and police forces are limited to their specific domain and geography, while hackers know no boundaries. It is a global problem we have on our hands and it needs a global solution. Goodman implores for all of us to get involved. He explains, ”The tools to change the world are in everybody’s hands, and how we use them is not just up to me. It’s up to all of us.” As we accelerate forward in all of these dimensions, we need a system that is not reactive but one that is proactive and preventative. Goodman proposes the creation of some type of open-sourced platform that encourages collective participation from citizens around the world. By creating a bottom-up defense system we can go toe-to-toe with the criminals, and feel safer knowing that we have more people on the good side than the bad.
But I’m not the expert – and that’s why I caught up with Keren Elazari, a globally esteemed Cyber Security & Hacking expert and Teaching Fellow at Singularity University. Keren reigns from Tel Aviv, Israel and has been developing some innovative methods and tools for detecting advanced cyber threats. We spoke about the state of cybercrime today and what we can expect moving forward…
Cybercrime with Keren by Brian Hoffstein
Photos: James Duncan Davidson
![Triclosan, the antibacterial and antifungal agent in liquid soap and a great many other things may disrupt hormone regulation and contribute to antibiotics resistance in germs. [Source: Wikipedia]](http://singularityhub.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/soapA.jpg)
![Smarter Objects combines the intuitive ease of using real objects with the flexibility of virtual ones. [Source: Virtual Labs via Vimeo]](http://singularityhub.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/smarter.jpg)
![[Source: Wikipedia]](http://singularityhub.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/trash-150x150.jpg)
Abundance is not an double edged sword, to say such is a misunderstanding of abundance. All crime stems from scarcity thus as we approach Post-Scarcity (extreme abundance) the motives for crime decrease despite there being greater tools for committing crime. For example imagine if everything was free because we have reached a Post-Scarcity situation: when everything is free because you can print anything you want there is no need to steal things. Why would someone steal and car when you can print as many cars as you want for free? Why would someone steal money when money is not needed to to buy things? The only problem is clueless politicians and economists who don’t have the vaguest idea about the economy, thus they may try to resist deflation, and that resistance could cause turbulence. I don’t fear the so-called “criminals”, I fear the bankers and policy-makers because they are utterly ignorant regarding the future we are approaching, they are oblivious regarding the new economy, they think deflation is bad but we are now entering an epoch where deflation must be seen to be good. Prices need to deflate to zero. The future is one where everything is free, a future where there is no crime because ALL CRIME is based upon poverty (scarcity).
“Why would someone steal and car when you can print as many cars as you want for free? Why would someone steal money when money is not needed to to buy things?”
Yes, theft will go down, but theft is not the only crime and greed is not the only motivator. For crime to be eliminated, we’d need to remove all reasons for people to hate other people, and identify and fix psychopaths in the womb. Both of which are possible, but won’t be solved solely by abundant resources.
Also, you can’t print a car unless you have a car-sized amount of metal. It’s cheaper, but not free until we make an open-source robotic iron mine and steel factory. 3D printers aren’t Star Trek’s food replicators.
Perhaps you recently heard about how data storage formerly needed 3 million atoms to store 1 bit of data but a new technique is being developed which can store 1 bit within only 51 atoms, which is a massive increase in efficiency.
A car sized amount of metal will not be needed in the future because we are heading towards ultra-efficient usage of resources thus via nanotechnology and AI I’m sure we will utilize matter in an ultra-efficient manner. It may sound unbelievable but I wouldn’t by surprised in the future if an entire car could be built from a mere handful of metal, or perhaps even a thumbnail of metal. It’s like powering the the back-to-the-future car on garbage instead of using plutonium as a fuel source.
Psychopaths do admittedly have different brain structures but I’m firmly convinced the scarcity-based social structure of capitalism causes psychopathy to manifest destructively, because in essence the rapine of capitalism is no different to the rapine of psychopathy, thus if you cure civilization via removing the scarcity-aspect then you remove the manifestation of psychopathy. Capitalism has many similarities to psychopathy because attempting to be richer than other people (the purpose of capitalism) shows a callous disregard for others, epitomised by news of Chinese workers at Apple factories committing suicide and being forced to sign anti-suicide employment contracts. Big companies such as Apple make big profits via the suffering of low paid workers. Capitalism is psychopathic. One person’s profit is another person’s loss; this is the nature of capitalism where one person being rich means another person will need to receive less money, think about it… based on the capitalist economy we can’t all be millionaires, thus there is an inherent callousness at the core of capitalism, a callousness which nurtures psychopathic tendencies. If you remove the barbarity of capitalism via everything being free I am sure you will create a civilization not based on war, hostility, “making a killing”, thus people will not live in constant fear of things being stolen, thus we will not need to lock almost everything to protect it from theft, thus we will have a civilization highly conducive to good mental health, thus issues such as psychopathy will not bloom. But the extreme psychopaths are in a minority thus even if an mentally healthy civilization does not stop psychopathy blooming then I am sure a small minority of people will not do more damage than they currently do because our ability to protect ourselves will also increase.
I could not agree more about monetary policy and the phobia the world’s central bankers have of price deflation. They see such deflation as being the same thing as the monetary deflation that lead to the great depression. While monetary deflation certainly does cause problems requiring wages to fall and creating unemployment when they don’t, the deflationary pressure on prices we see these days has everything to do with increasing abundance and productivity. Prices falling due to abundance is simply supply and demand working to lower prices, it has nothing whatsoever to do with depressionary ‘monetary’ deflation. It does NOT cause a fall in wages and unemployment.
And yet our governments work tirelessly to see to it that prices do not fall. The world’s central banks have an ‘inflation target’ where they deliberately act to create a general price ‘increase’ equal to that target. THEY DO THIS ON PURPOSE! This is official policy. Look it up.
So instead of everyone being better off each year by about 5% (the average yearly increase in productivity is around 5%, which would translate into a general decline in prices by about 5%), we find ourselves having to cope with an inflation of 3% and hoping we can get a raise. Our governments are in fact fabricating much of the world’s problems, out of shear ignorance.
Thanks for your post Panpiper. Yes the “inflation target” is crazy. An “inflation target” shows utter ignorance regarding the economy of our changing world. Governments need to start working on an exit strategy regarding a civilization where everything is free, a civilization where Governments have ceased to exist. The problem with politicians is that they are antiquated parasites, they are self-serving buffoons who resist change, they simply cannot comprehend the radical future we are approaching.
Trying to tell politicians that in the future (no later than 2045) everything will be free, and governments will have ceased to exist, it is like trying to the tell the God Hates Fags group that there is nothing wrong with being Gay.
Actually this will be the most exciting ride in history – for good or for bad.
The wealthy fear losing the yardsticks that make them wealthy. Technology today is the most democratizing force in human history. Bring it on.
These threads are always interesting and produce valuable reflections on emerging future scenarios. The difficulty is that each author posits his/her own future point in time. It would be more helpful to set some benchmarks for timeframe(s).
My thought is that post-singularity/ post abundance world arguably can be nirvana for most of the human race. That assumes we can get there, while dealing with intractable new challenges. So, this increasingly fast bridge to the future is where the signficiant challenges lie. If we significatnly fall off the rails, then there is a possibility for armageddon.
In this thread, it is suggested we are in a true post-abundance world. In such a complete vision, resources are unlimited and goods and services are near unlimited. This as much because much of existence and opportunity is played out in various realms of virtual reality. If you can drive the world’s fasted Ferrari, and live the palace of your dreams, and have relationships without end, the role for physical goods and services is greatly diminished.
For reasons noted, poverty-crime no longer has much incentive. Other types of propensities will remain, presumably. Terror/ psycopathic crimes and similar will not diminish. This, unless we determine the much of those inclinations result from genetic or physical dysfunctions within those brains–where appropriate and fair remedies can resolve.
I think much of the current concern about economics of deflation are too early. A more real set of imbalance is the already emerging constraint of employment–due in part to growing technology and related effeciencies. A world with a growing abundance potential and standard of living will lead to a need for pre-arrival economic allocation issues long before the Singularity.
That takes you to other good threads as to how to (get to) a world of rather unthinkable abundance, while dealing with current standards of wealth accumulation; performance, fairness and allocation. At the end state, allocation is presumably not an issue. Currencies may ultimately not be requried, at least in present form.
The politics of rapid change in favor of a different paradigm is arguably (the most?) significant challenge. If the wealthy and powerful are perceiving that their assets and social presitige are challenged by a world of abundance and “no-cost”, what obstacles will they present? An interim fanatical fear by the non-employed (With no saftety net) could lead to destruction and illogical actions.
As we move forward with these most valuable discussions of the incredible, let’s state working premises as to what future is under discussion. I say, let’s move out 40 years to a full singulatiry environment. Then, let’s address the many challenges and associated timing of the bridge. Build and defend the thoughtful bridge, and we have a good chance of making it. I greatly look forward to surviving to the otherside!
Which is why we cannot rely on abundance alone being the only factor here. Abundance is good, but doesn\’t address a lot of problems by itself.
What we\’ll need along with abundance, is new economic and societal systems, which treat everyone fairly, and prevent people from becoming depressed or desperate. Our world needs a full overhaul, that actually addresses the root causes of problems like unhappiness and desperation which drives people to crime. As well as focus on good education methods, and proper health care, especially with mental health issues.
I seem to remember Jacque Fresco addressing this, when talking about the Venus Project, but I don\’t think it fully deals with the issue either.
IIf you want one world, you need one law enforcement agency, which could be called the united Nations, if you choose to keep the “nation” misnomer. Blue hats vs black hats.
Abundance is no good without distribution, which we have not got, because the parasites block the channels.
We need a worldwide vermifuge.
Dennis Kucinich solved the problem. He said we should make status dependent on public service. Think about the ramifications of that.
Whenever I read these cautions about abundance I’m reminded of the Woody Allen interview in Playboy magazine.
Yeah, I did read it. Eventually and the exchange that’s always stuck in my mind was the question about the effect success has had on his sex life to which Woody Allen responded, “I’m striking out with a better class of woman”.
That’s how I see that cautions about abundance; we’re beset by a better class of problem.
Obesity is one such cause du jour and lots of folks are all atwitter about it, wailing endlessly and certain that only forceful measures like banning large sodas will solve the problem.
But if you take the slightly longer view the food-related problem that’s followed humanity around like a lonely spectre has been hunger. If it’s a choice between involuntarily skinny and voluntarily fat, I’ll choose voluntarily fat.
Even Goodman’s boogeyman isn’t particulary terrifying. It does require a society so wealthy that it can afford to create computers, the software to run them and the sophisticated communication system to tie them together before the hacker terror can come into existance.
To deal with that danger directly though, it’s not that much of a problem if you look closely enough.
All hacker attacks fall into a very few categories and those categories are growing narrower as the technology community, whom those hackers most directly harm, is responding.
The hackers are the mosquitoes and the tech community is the rolled-up newspaper.
As technology advances, it gives each person more power to act, to either do good or bad. That has always been a problem, beginning with the first person that figured out how to kill with a club. Ultimately we will reach the point where the average person could destroy the planet.
Elimination of scarcity will remove some of the desire for crime. Elimination of the possibility to be wealthy could remove more (No one allowed to be more than 10 times richer than anyone else).
Future society needs to be built on a more complex reward system (instead of money), one which rewards people for good social behavior, so that resources are only give to people that have demonstrated that they are trustworthy and responsible. Not punishment for failing to be social, just a great life for being a good person.
1. To eliminate poverty is eliminate unnecessary limitations (Mostly Monetary)
2. To eliminate unnecessary law (of order) is to educate the people that our life can be excite
Sorry Jeruulv:
Item 2 implies that humans are perfectable or that all flaws can be fixed with simple education. That is not the case, we will always need to find ways to get along with people who make our lives “exciting”.
Still, eliminating unnecessary laws is always a good thing. Just as Government is a necessary evil, too much government is an unnecessary evil. I’ve not experienced an insufficiency of government but I suppose that it could exist and would be – by definition – bad.
Well the Future is certainty looking more exciting. Nothing like synthetic viruses, Stock jacking, and automated weapons platforms getting turned on us at any moment really brings out the best in human performance. Glad to hear I won’t be bored in the next 50 years.