The Future Is Here Today...Robots, Genetics, AI, Longevity, Singularity

by Aaron Saenz on October 6th, 2009
Will scientific advancements in treating aging let our children eventually live forever?

Will scientific advancements in treating aging let our children eventually live forever?

If living forever isn’t enough motivation to get scientists to study longevity, maybe $3.8 million will work instead. That’s the current size of the Mprize, a special fund put forth by the Methuselah Foundation that seeks to encourage research into extending healthy human life. The prize is awarded to those scientists who can increase the lifespan of lab mice in the hopes that work performed on that species can be readily applied to humans. Can we live longer? Do we even want to? When will the average human life expectancy start to increase by more than a year each year? The Methuselah Foundation’s answers are yes, yes, and much sooner than you might think. Check out Aubrey De Grey’s discussion of longevity at TED 2005 in the video after the break. He’s very enthusiastic to say the least.

The history of offering a cash prize to help motivate research has a long and successful history. Mariners were finally able to determine their longitude at sea thanks to the aptly named Longitude Prize offered by the British government. Lindbergh’s transatlantic flight was in direct response to the Orteig prize. The modern day Xprize is inspiring new achievements in genomics, space flight, lunar exploration, and transportation efficiency. With the Mprize, the Methuselah Foundation may very well bring about a surge in the interest in increasing human lifespans within the next generation. As Aubrey De Grey points out, once human lifespans start increasing by an appreciable amount, further medical developments will occur during that lifespan increasing it even farther. We could eventually reach a sort of lifespan escape velocity and reach immortality. De Grey has since coined the concept as the Methuselarity. Catchy, huh?
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by Aaron Saenz on June 16th, 2009

Does the Transcendent Man just want to be a robot? That’s part of the story coming out of Daniel Lyons’ recent article in Newsweek about Singularity front man, Ray Kurzweil. The other part is that Kurzweil is much too optimistic in his predictions and his beliefs. It’s not a flattering article, for either Kurzweil or Singularity enthusiasts in general. For his part, Kurzweil defended his positions in a responding letter to the editor. It’s the media equivalent of a boxing match and I’m not sure who landed the more devastating blows.

Is Ray Kurzweil a visionary...or a man desparate for computer-based immortality?

Is Ray Kurzweil a visionary...or a man desparate for computer-based immortality?

For those of you just joining the debate, let me say that it centers around two key issues: how fast the technology of intelligence (computers, biotechnology, etc) is growing, and whether or not Ray Kurzweil is a nut. A large part of Lyons’ Newsweek article, and Kurzweil’s response, focused on whether or not Kurzweil’s earlier predictions about technology were accurate. Lyons posits that most of Kurzweil’s predictions were easily forseeable (like the success of the Internet) or wrong. Kurzweil defends the originality of his insights and their accuracy.

These predictions, from Kurzweil’s books and speeches, ranged from the Internet to the Human Genome project. In the mid to late 80s, Kurzweil predicted that the Internet would grow exponentially and enjoy widespread use. Lyons says this was an easy prediction. Kurzweil also predicted, a decade later, that most computers used wouldn’t have keyboards, and would be part of someone’s apparel. Lyons claims this hasn’t happened, while Kurzweil points to iPhones, mp3 players, and computerized hearing aids. Kurzweil predicted the success of the Human Genome project in 15 years (predicting exponential growth in the rate of return). Lyons concedes that prediction but points to Kurzweil’s belief that the economy would keep growing between 1999 and 2009. The list goes on and on.

Figuring out who’s right isn’t easy. What kind of metric do we apply to futurists? How often do they have to be right, and how right do they have to be? If Kurzweil was wrong about everything else, but is correct in predicting that artificial intelligence will be indistinguishable from human intelligence in 20 years, that alone would make him a visionary. In the end, it’s up to each reader to evaluate the predictions Kurzweil made and decide whether they collectively prove he’s a technological seer, or just another dreamer.

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transhumanist transhumanismDavid Gelles from The Futurist has written a very detailed piece that describes Silicon Valley as the epicenter of a worldwide transhumanist movement.  Gelles’ article is neither pro nor anti transhumanist, but instead is focused on telling us about the history and the players that have shaped this movement from past to present.  The article is a crash course for anyone interested in learning what the transhumanist movement is and who is involved.

At a whopping 20 pages, you really have to be interested in transhumanism to sludge through this article.  For those who don’t want to read the whole thing, here is my take on a short summary:

With an ample supply of wealthy people equipped with strong technical backgrounds and an open mind to new ideas, the transhumanist movement has naturally found its home in Silicon Valley.  Recent advances in technology have taken transhumanist ideas such as radical life extension, immortality, brain uploading and copying, and biological or machine based body enhancement from the realm of crazy to the realm of possible.

Large numbers of smart, successful silicon valley players are joining a transhumanist movement that holds both great promise and great peril for mankind.  Some see transhumanists as forward thinkers at the forefront of change, while others see them as borderline religious fanatics attached to ideas that are dangerous and/or ridiculous.

Major players in the movement are mentioned, including:

Peter Thiel – co-founder and former CEO of PayPal, multi-million dollar donor to transhumanist causes

Robert Ettinger – “The Father of Cryonics”, founder of the Cryonics Institute, Author of famous Immortality Books

Aubrey De Grey – Founder of Methuselah Foundation, pioneer in the science of fighting aging

Ralph Merkle – pioneer in cryptography, researcher and speaker on nanotechnology and cryonics

James Clement – Executive Director of the World Transhumanist Association

Organizations are covered, including the World Transhumanist Association, Alcor Foundation, Foresight Nanotech Institute, Extropy Institute, Methuselah Foundation, Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence

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