The Law Of Futurology


In pretty much all walks of life, humans are prone to making their theories and ideas conform to their own personal hopes and dreams.  This especially applies to futurists!

When building a theory that we want to believe in, we tend to focus on the evidence that supports our theory, while ignoring or even discrediting the evidence that contradicts that theory.

Kurzweil conveniently believes that great strides in human advancement – human level artificial intelligence, nanobots in our bodies, even immortality – will arrive just before the end of his lifetime.  Is Kurzweil falling prey to the human tendency to meld theory with his own personal desires, or is he simply looking at the facts?

I hope for all of us that Kurzweil is right, but in the meantime, why not enjoy the following comic from SMBC comics that reminds us all to take futurists’ predictions with a healthy dose of salt:

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